World: Barley production is projected by USDA to increase by 4% in 2006-2007

USDA’s export sales report showed barley exports last week at 3.1 TMT for Canada and Mexico. New barley export sales totalled 100 MT, all for Canada. According to the USDA Export Sales Report, accumulated U.S. barley exports in Marketing Year 2005/06 - which ended May 31, 2006 – totalled 516.5 TMT, compared to 396.9 TMT in the previous year.

USDA made only one minor adjustment to the U.S. barley balance sheet. They lowered 2005/06 barley exports by 5 million bu to 25 million bu and raised U.S. ending stocks by 5 million bu to 110 million bu. That resulted in an increase in 2006/07 beginning stocks of 5 million bu to 110 million bu and higher 2006/07 ending stocks of 5 million bu to 105 million bu. World barley production was increased slightly this month due to bigger crops expected in Russia, Ukraine and the EU.

World barley production is projected to increase by 4% to 144.3 MMT, with consumption outpacing production for the second consecutive year. US production is pegged to decline another 3% to 4.5 MMT.

World barley supplies are estimated to increase slightly to 172.8 MMT, while US supplies are pegged to decline 7% to 6.9 MMT.

World barley trade is expected to fall 2% to 17.6 MMT. US exports are projected to increase by 25% to 0.5 MMT.

World barley consumption is pegged to increase 1% to 145.1 MMT, but US usage is expected to fall by 5% to 4.4 MMT.

World barley carryover stocks are estimated to decline 3% to 27.7 MMT. US carryout is projected to fall 5% to 2.3 MMT.

The EU Grains Management Committee granted licenses to export 1.0 TMT of free market barley with a maximum refund or subsidy of 6.00 Euros/MT and approved release of 16.05 TMT of intervention barley stocks (Hungary and Slovakia) at a min. selling price of 90.01 Euro/MT. Japan will tender for 250 TMT of feed barley under their Simultaneous Buy Sell import system tomorrow, June 16. Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a tender to purchase 100 TMT of feed barley, with a June 28 deadline for bids.

USDA increased their estimate of Russian barley production in Marketing Year 2006/07 by 1.0 MMT this month to 17.5 MMT and increased Russian barley exports by .5 MMT to 2.0 MMT. USDA left their Australian barley production estimate unchanged at 9.5 MMT, but local projections have pegged the Australian barley crop much smaller at 6.95 MMT, due to very dry conditions.

Local barley prices in southern Idaho ranged from 25 cents lower to 15 cents higher, the Idaho Barley Commission released in its Idaho Grain Market Report of June 15. Prices ranged from 5 cents lower to 5 cents higher in northern Idaho.

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