France: Forecasts for French barley export outside the EU increased on China demand

French soft wheat and barley sales to China prompted farm office FranceAgriMer to increase its forecasts for exports outside the European Union in 2023/24, but it cut projected intra-EU shipments, citing Black Sea competition, the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide reported on October 12.

In a supply and demand outlook, the office pegged French soft wheat shipments outside the bloc at 9.80 million metric tons from 9.50 million projected last month, but still 3.5% below last season’s level.

Traders have reported that China made large purchases of French wheat since mid-September with volumes estimated at between one and two million tons for delivery later in the season.

French soft wheat shipments within the EU this season are now expected at 7.33 million tons, down from 7.54 million forecast in September, still 14.8% higher than the 2022/23 volume.

French wheat shipments this season have been curbed by massive exports of cheaper Russian supplies, notably in one of its main export markets Algeria.

For barley, FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for 2023/24 exports outside the EU to 3.10 million tons from 2.90 million expected last month, now in line with last season. That reflected a 200,000 ton upward revision to expected shipments to China, it said.

Within the EU, it lowered projected French barley shipments to 3.33 from 3.60 million tons last month and 4.9% above last season, citing reduced competitiveness against other cereals, mainly in the Netherlands.

In terms of stocks, FranceAgriMer cut its forecast of French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season to 2.77 million tons, down from 2.92 million forecast last month, still 8.8% above 2022/23, after lowering its estimate of market supplies.

In contrast a 220,000 ton increase in expected harvest supplies prompted the office to raise barley ending stocks at the end of this season to 1.66 million tons from 1.23 million last month, 63% above last season.

For maize, harvesting of which is under way, FranceAgriMer forecast ending stocks at 1.64 million tons, slightly below the 1.65 million estimated last month.

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