Canada: 2022-23 barley supply up sharply from last year’s record low

For 2022-23, Canadian barley supply is around 10.6 million tonnes (Mt), up sharply from last year’s record low of 7.92 Mt, supporting demand from both the domestic and international markets, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their July report.

Total domestic use is forecast at 6.0 Mt, up 27% year-over-year (y/y) on higher feed use. Feed use accounts for over 90% of total domestic use.

Total exports, including grain exports and product exports (grain equivalent), are projected at 3.83 Mt, up 43% y/y.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.73 Mt, rising sharply from last year’s record low but more than 10% below average.

Over the past month, the Lethbridge feed barley price had shown some strength and hovered around C$410/tonne (t) to C$420/t. For the crop year to-date, the Lethbridge feed barley price averaged around C$417/t, versus C$435/t for the same period a year ago. For the entire crop year, the Lethbridge feed barley average price is forecast at C$415/t, down only nearly C$15/t from last year’s record high.

For 2023-24, Canadian producers seeded more barley area than estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) in April, according to the agency’s June seeded area survey results. There are slightly over 2.96 million hectares (Mha) of barley seeded this planting season. This level is 3% higher than Statistic Canada’s (STC) April estimate of 2.87 Mha, with the increase primarily contributed by farmers in the West, led by Saskatchewan farmers. Relative to history, barley acreage in 2023-24 is 4% higher than 2022-23, but slightly lower than the previous five-year average.

For Alberta, the largest barley-producing province, barley acreage seeded for 2023-24 is pegged at 1.55 Mha, up by 8% and 7% respectively from last year and the previous five-year average. In Saskatchewan, the second largest barley-producing province, farmers planted 1.14 Mha of barley, up slightly from last year but down notably from average. In Manitoba, producers grew 0.17 Mha of barley, down slightly from last year but up notably from average.

Canadian barley production for 2023-24 is projected at 9.23 Mt, down 8% from last year and 4% from the previous five-year average, as the increase in seeded area is expected to be offset by a decline in yield.

Despite an expected increase in carry-in stocks, total supply is projected at nearly 10.0 Mt, down 5% from 2022-23 and the average. Total demand is predicted to decrease y/y on lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.7 Mt, down 4% from 2022-23 and 17% below average.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$350/t, lower than the C$415/t predicted for 2022-23, primarily under pressure from lower 2023-24 US corn prices.

For the US, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s June Acreage report indicated
a significantly higher than expected barley acreage for 2023-24. Estimated at 3.36 million acres (Mac) (1.4 Mha), US barley acreage seeded this planting season is 15% higher than the March intentions and 14% higher than 2022-23, also the highest in the recent eight years. The area to be harvested is estimated at 2.53 Mac, up 4% y/y. The USDA lowered its yield projection for 2023-24 US barley, which is now below the 2022-23 level and the average. Production is projected at 177 million bushels (Mbu) (3.85 Mt), down from the June projection and up only slightly from 2022-23 but still 12% above the previous five-year average. Farm price is projected at US$6.10/bushel (bu) (US$280.17/t), unchanged from the June projection and down notably from 2022-23 but remains historically high.

Global barley production for 2023-24 is projected at 146 Mt, 2% lower than the June estimate due to lower production forecasts for the EU and Ukraine, and 4% below the 2022-23 level and the previous five-year average.

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