World: Record total grains production anticipated for 2021-22

The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its estimate for total grains production month-over-month, but it is still anticipating record production of 2.281 billion tonnes in 2021-22, according to its February Grain Market Report.

The IGC attributed the month-over-month drop to downward adjustments for Southern Hemisphere corn (maize) crops and smaller numbers for sorghum and wheat.

Total grains production for 2021-22 is estimated 3% higher year-over-year with increases in corn, wheat and sorghum offsetting reductions in barley and other coarse grains.

Total use, due to increases in consumption particularly feed, is expected to increase 2% to 2.286 billion, also a new record.

Meanwhile, total grain trade is expected to drop 1% to 424 million tonnes because of an expected pullback in Chinese corn imports, the IGC said.

Supply and demand projections for 2022-23 wheat are similar to the tentative outlook issued last month, including predictions for record production and consumption, the IGC said. The Council’s first projections of 2022-23 world corn and barley harvested areas are for little overall year-over-year change.

With dwindling yield potential in South America, the forecast for 2021-22 global soybean production was further cut to 353 million tonnes, a 4% decrease from last season. Consumption is expected to decline for the first time in a decade.

Looking ahead to prospects for 2022-23, the IGC tentatively projects a 2% year-over-year increase in global acreage, including gains in major exporters.

The IGC’s forecast for global rice production in 2021-22 dropped by 1 million tonnes, to 510 million tonnes, still an increase from last season. Exports were cut by 2 million tonnes, to 181 million tonnes.

With increases likely in leading producers, including India, world harvested area is predicted to expand by 1% in 2022-23.

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