EU: EU-28 barley yield forecasts revised downward once more

EU-28 maize, barley and total wheat yield forecasts have been revised downward in the latest August European Commission MARS crop monitoring report. The forecast yield reductions are predominantly due to the impact upon spring crops from continued dry weather conditions persisting across much of Northern Europe.

The forecast yields and outlooks for maize are however a mixed picture, at an EU-28 wide level, yields are forecast to be above the five year average but nearly 4% below last year. Conditions in France have led forecast grain maize yields to fall 7% below average with an 18% reduction from the previous July report. Meanwhile, excellent maize conditions in Bulgaria and Romania have led yield forecasts to be up 25% and 30% respectively from the five year average.

By applying the August MARS report yields to the July EU Crop Observatory area forecasts, 2018 EU grain maize production could total 63.5 mln tonnes, down just 3.4% year on year. French grain maize production may represent just 19% of EU grain maize production, with 2018 production suggested to be 12 mln tonnes.

Following the good conditions and forecast yields in Romania and Bulgaria, 28% of EU grain maize could be produced by these two countries in 2018. The increased shift in the origin of EU maize production to Black Sea bordering countries may increase the influence that Ukraine and Russia have on EU maize markets.

Yield forecasts for total wheat at an EU-28 wide level were also revised down and now stand at 5.49 t/ha, a further 1.8% reduction from the July report and down 4.2% on the five year average. Total EU barley has also been revised downward, undergoing a further 0.6% reduction from July and now 4% below the five year average at 4.71 t/ha.

Updated EU Crop Observatory forecasts are typically released at the end of each month.

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