Australia: One of the world's biggest barley exporters, Adelaide-based ABB Grain, recently advised growers to expect a malting barley price of $175 to $185 a tonne and just $150 to $160 a tonne for feed barley. That is likely to represent a drop of $30 to $40 a tonne on the amount growers will net from barley harvested next summer.

ABB Grain's managing director, Michael Ivaniw, says the appreciation of the currency has been "nothing short of appalling" for local grain prices. When linked with the impact of the astronomic sea freight rates of the past year - which are expected to continue for at least the next 12 months - he acknowledges growers could swing away from barley.

"We will see people starting to question whether they profitably grow barley, especially feed, at such prices," he says. Grain market analyst Malcolm Bartholomaeus of Callum Downs Commodity News says the outlook for both wheat and barley indicates prices this coming year will be at levels well below recent average returns. "If we do not get a good season this year, these low prices will start to hurt growers," he says.

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