World: Barley crop 2025 forecast up 0.6 mln tonnes

Global barley crop’24 estimate is unchanged at 142.3 mln tonnes, while crop’25 prospects have improved by 0.6 mln tonnes to 144.6 mln, RMI Analytics said in their early April report.

The increase is mostly due to +0.5 mln tonnes in EU27+UK, coming from a general improvement in yield potential due to the very good planting progress achieved across most of western Europe. There are some concerns about dryness in parts of Europe but it remains very early in the crop cycle.

The other small increase was +0.1 mln tonnes in Argentina where moisture conditions are much improved, however there is risk to crop’25 planted area as wheat is highly competitive to barley in Argentina.

The ‘Big Six’ barley regions are forecast to increase production by 3 mln tonnes in 2025, which provides a large degree of stability to world markets.

While the global barley supply chain awaits a rebound and clarity regarding the trade disruption from US tariffs, which could seriously alter trade flows for barley and malt. In the meantime, the supply side of the balance sheet is progressing on a very good path, across most key barley producing regions in both the northern and southern hemispheres.

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