World: Citi upgrades AB InBev stock, sees margin growth and potential $1bn buyback

On Tuesday, October 1, Anheuser-Busch InBev received an upgrade from Citi, with the firm changing its stock rating from Neutral to Buy. The new price target has been set at €69.00, raised from the previous target of €61.00, Investing.com reported.

Despite anticipated lower third-quarter volumes in the U.S. and a slowdown in Mexico, Citi expects Anheuser-Busch InBev to outperform its full-year 2024 organic EBITDA growth guidance, which ranges from 4-8%. This projection is attributed to strong cost control measures within the U.S. operations.

The financial institution anticipates that Anheuser-Busch InBev will continue to see margin expansion into 2025. This expectation is based on adjustments to the company's U.S. operations to account for what is believed to be permanently reduced Bud Light volumes. Additionally, the potential for mid-term group margins to return to pre-pandemic levels is seen as a result of normalizing cost of goods sold (COGS) and emerging market pricing dynamics.

Citi also forecasts that Anheuser-Busch InBev's net debt to EBITDA ratio will fall below 3x by the end of the year. This financial position may lead the company's management to announce a $1 billion buyback program alongside its October 31st third-quarter results. Such a move is expected to provide technical support for the stock in the upcoming months.

To reflect the positive outlook, Citi has initiated a Positive Catalyst Watch on Anheuser-Busch InBev, indicating a higher confidence in the company's earnings deliverability for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 compared to its peers.

E-malt.com, the global information source for the brewing and malting industry professionals. The bi-weekly E-malt.com Newsletters feature latest industry news, statistics in graphs and tables, world barley and malt prices, and other relevant information. Click here to get full access to E-malt.com. If you are a Castle Malting client, you can get free access to E-malt.com website and publications. Contact us for more information at marketing@castlemalting.com .