Canada: 2024-25 Canadian barley supply down 3% from previous year

For 2024-25, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from the previous crop year, mainly due to lower production on smaller area, although carry-in stocks are sharply above last year’s level and the five-year average. Compared to the five-year average, 2024-25 supply is down 8%, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their August report.

Total exports are projected at 2.8 Mt (approximately three-quarters from grain exports and approximately one-quarter from product exports), down 7% from last season and 16% below the five-year average.

China remains the largest destination of Canadian barley grain exports, representing almost 70% of the exported volume, followed by Japan (20%) and the U.S. (<10%). The US is the largest destination of Canadian barley product exports, representing almost 60% of the volume, followed by Japan (>20%), Mexico (>10%), and South Korea (<5%).

Total domestic use is projected at 5.5 Mt, lower year-on-year (y/y), driven by notably lower feed use, and be well below the five-year average.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 1.1 Mt, down 4% from last year but sharply up from the five-year average.

The Lethbridge average barley price recovered from a multi-year low of approximately C$255/tonne (/t) seen last August, reaching over $315/t in early June, then falling below C$295/t by the end of July. The average price for the entire crop year is finalized at C$296/t, the lowest since 2021-22.

For 2025-26, Canadian farmers seeded 2.5 million hectares (Mha) of barley, according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) June seeded acreage report. The 2025 acreage is 4% lower than that in the previous year, and 16% below the five-year average. Barley area in Canada’s leading barley-growing provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, for 2025, are the lowest in seven or eight years.

According to the August modelled yield and production forecasts by AAFC/Science and Technology Branch (STB), production is pegged at 8.3 Mt; it is up 2% y/y on well above-average yields, despite a smaller seeded area, but remaining 7% below the five-year average. This, along with declines in carry-in stocks and imports, will lead to a total supply of 9.5 Mt, little changed y/y, but 5% below the five-year average. Total domestic use is forecast to increase due to higher feed demand.

Total exports are forecast to be in line with the level estimated for the previous crop year. Carry-out stocks are projected to decline y/y but be well above average.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$285/t, down C$11/t from 2024-25, partly due to pressure from expected lower US corn prices.

Internationally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects 2025-26 world barley production at 144 Mt, up only 1% y/y, mainly due to increases for the EU (+ 2.8 Mt) and Russia (+1.5 Mt), offsetting declines for Australia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the US.

World barley imports are forecast to rise by 1% to 29 Mt, with little change for China. In the past two decades, global demand for barley has been relatively stable.

For 2025-26, world barley consumption is expected to decline slightly, along with feed use. However, food, seed, and industrial use is expected to increase.

Global barley ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected at 18 Mt, down noticeably y/y and well below the five-year average. Stocks in major exporting countries such as Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine are projected to be tight, while the EU and Russia will experience an improved outlook.