Canada: Higher production and lower prices projected for barley for 2007-2008

Area seeded to barley in 2007-2008 is forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to increase by 21% from 2006-2007, with production rising by 28% to 12.8 million metric tonnes (Mt). Total supply, however, is expected to increase at a slower pace, as a result of lower carry-in stocks, AAFC reported on January 12. “Returns for feed and malting barley are expected to be relatively attractive which will support total barley area.”

“Domestic feed consumption is projected to increase by 7%, as a result of increased supplies. Assuming normal crop quality, barley exports are expected to increase to 2.4 Mt. Feed barley exports are forecast to increase from 2006-2007 but remains at low levels as deliveries to the CWB continue to be less attractive than to the off-Board market.

Carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 25% to 2.0 Mt. Domestic feed barley prices are forecast to decrease by C$15/t, to C$135/t for 1CW, in-store Lethbridge. The CWB pool returns for malting barley are projected to decrease.”

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