World: The barley production estimate of IGC is unchanged at 140 million tonnes, 1 million more than last year

After last month’s sharp rise, some grain prices moved still higher while others retreated, but with little fundamental change in the global supply and demand situation, IGC commented in its montly Grain Market Report on November 24th. Particularly strong were US maize (corn) and European barley values, while US and Argentine wheat lost ground.

The barley market was supported by active buying, Australia’s sharply reduced export availabilities and Ukraine’s new export quotas. EU feed barley export quotations achieved parity with milling wheat, while malting barley values climbed even more steeply.

The barley production estimate of IGC is unchanged at 140 million tonnes, 1 million more than last year. While the EU crop is larger, weather problems have reduced the amount of malting barley. Continuing drought in Australia results in a further cut in its forecast to only 3.8m. tons, compared with 9.9m. in 2005.

Forecast global barley consumption is up 1m. tons at 149m., 7m. more than last year, but recent tightening supplies in the EU reduce its animal feed use compared with previous forecasts, while malt plant closures will cut malting barley requirements. Rising livestock numbers in Russia and Ukraine are boosting barley feed use there. The world trade forecast is unchanged at 15.5m. tons, 2.3m. less than in 2005/06, with the main reductions in Saudi Arabia, China and North Africa. Australia’s (July/June) exports are projected at 2.1m. tons. 0.9m. less than previously forecast.

On Nov 3 Turkey sold 125,000 t barley for export.
On Nov 8 Jordan bought 150,000 t optional-origin Barley.
On Nov 9 Tunisia: bought 125,000 t optional-origin feed barley.
On Nov 15 Japan bought 249,830 t feed barley in SBS tender.
On Nov 16 EU barley export refund changed to ‘nil value’.

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