World: IGC’s estimation of Barley Supply and Demand 2005/06 and Outlook 2006/07

World barley production for 2005/2006 is estimated by the International Grains Council (IGC) at 138.7 million tonnes, similar to last month, IGC posted in its Grain Market Report on March 30. Forecast total consumption is also little different at 142.0 million tonnes, increases in feed use in North Africa and Near East Asia being balanced by reductions in the EU and Russia. The strengthening feed demand, with particularly large shipments to Iran and Saudi Arabia, is reflected in an 0.6 million tonnes increase in estimated total trade to 18.0m tons, although the forecast for malting barley is lower, at 4.3 million tonnes. Revisions to the EU’s barley use statistics increase its estimated stocks, and the world total at the end of 2005/06 is now projected at 26.7 million tonnes.

Despite sowing delays, barley production in the EU is expected in 2006/2007 to be significantly higher than in 2005, when yields were low, according to IGC. Sowings of spring barley in the CIS countries will probably increase to make up for losses of winter grains and production will likely be higher. Farmers in Canada are expected to switch to barley from canola, while good rains in North Africa promise a large crop there. Total barley production in 2006 is forecast at 146 million tonnes, 7 million tonnes up from last year.

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