Canada: Carry-in barley stocks for 2005-06 increased by about 66% to 3.5 million tonnes
Statistics Canada's "Stocks of Canadian Grain at July 31, 2005" report indicated that carry-in barley stocks increased by about 66% from 2004-05 to 3.5 Mt, as a result of large production of low-quality barley and lower exports in 2004-05. Although production is estimated to fall from 2004-05, total supply is up by 3%, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada said on September 20.
Exports are expected to rise significantly, due to higher exportable supplies of malting barley in Canada and less competition in overseas markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to drop significantly. The off-Board feed barley price is forecast to rise slightly.
Malting barley export prices will be pressured by the strength in Canadian dollar and improved world supplies, with the CWB PRO for Special Select 2-Row down by C$6/t from 2004-05 to C$172/t.
AAFC stated that the pace of harvest in western Canada is behind normal due to untimely rains, particularly in Saskatchewan and Alberta, where harvest progress is well behind normal. The delay caused by rain may reduce the quality of the crop, but the average quality of the crop in western Canada is expected to be better than last year's poor quality crop. Protein levels are expected to be below average which is a negative factor for wheat and durum but is positive for malting barley selection rates.
Generally, world prices for G&O are forecast to decline and prices in Canada will be further pressured by the strong Canadian dollar. The major factors to watch are: harvest conditions in Canada and the US, import demand from China, EU export policy, ocean freight rates and exchange rates.
Zurück
E-malt.com, the global information source for the brewing and malting industry professionals. The bi-weekly E-malt.com Newsletters feature latest industry news, statistics in graphs and tables, world barley and malt prices, and other relevant information. Click here to get full access to E-malt.com. If you are a Castle Malting client, you can get free access to E-malt.com website and publications. Contact us for more information at marketing@castlemalting.com .
