Australia: Last rains have boosted the national barley crop

Late-season rains in eastern Australia have boosted the national barley crop for the current growing season to slightly above average, Reuters cited the country's main trader and exporter for the eastern states saying on July 18.

The crop for the year to March 31, 2006 was headed toward 7.3 million tonnes after being rescued by rain which began falling in mid-June, said Ole Houe, manager of coarse grains for GrainCorp Ltd. This is slightly ahead of the five-year average of 6.5 million tonnes and ahead of 6.5 million tonnes last year.

A healthy glow in Australia's new barley crop, which will largely go to brew beer in China and Japan, is apparent in contrast with crop forecasts of only around a month ago.

In early June, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics slashed its official forecast to 5.6 million tonnes from 7.3 million tonnes, as drought cut deeply into the planting season.

Soaking planting rain began to fall four days later. "We didn't waver too much. We had it at around 7 million tonnes all along," Houe said, pointing out that late amendments could be made.

The big barley states of South Australia and Victoria are both 95 percent planted to barley, without big shifts having occurred between barley and wheat crops because of weather uncertainties. And Western Australia looks like producing its best barley crop in 5 to 6 years.

The last remaining uncertainty about planting is whether farmers in northern New South Wales, still only 45 percent planted, will swing from growing wheat to barley, which can be sown later in the season.

"That's the big question mark. Whether there's going to be a swing from wheat to barley. Or whether its going to be completely out of the winter crops and into summer crops," Houe said. The bottom line is that in a few short weeks Australia has swung from barley shortage to surplus.

Australia typically domestically consumes around 170,000 tonnes of malting barley and 2.5 million tonnes of livestock feed barley a year. This will leave ample supplies for exports from a rejuvenated crop in 2005/06.

The drought caused some interesting switches in Australia's barley sales this year.

Strong early sales to China produced some misgivings in the Australian domestic market when dry weather intensified and eastern demand for barley for animal feed strengthened.

Sales to China slowed, but are expected to pick up again from the new crop now that the rains have returned.

Strong Australian domestic demand for old crop barley would continue until new crop supplies came to market, Houe said.

Australia is the biggest barley exporter in the world, shipping malting supplies to east Asia and livestock feed barley to the Middle East.

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