EU: MARS reduces spring barley yield forecast

The EU's Crop Monitoring Service (MARS) in a May report raised its forecast for EU cereal yields in 2025 due to favorable precipitation in southern Europe and a minor impact on crops from drought in the north of the region.

Compared to April estimates, the yield forecast for soft wheat has been increased from 6.03 to 6.04 t/ha, durum from 3.69 to 3.77 t/ha, and winter barley from 5.18 to 5.28 t/ha.

At the same time, the yield forecast for corn has been left at 7.45 t/ha, and spring barley has been reduced from 4.87 to 4.86 t/ha.

The yield forecast for rapeseed in the EU in 2025 has been reduced to 3.17 t/ha, which will be inferior to last year's 3.2 t/ha, but will correspond to the 5-year average.

The yield of other crops is forecasted as follows:

rye – 4.19 t/ha,
triticale – 4.45 t/ha,
potatoes – 37.4 t/ha,
sugar beet – 77.9 t/ha,
sunflower – 2.09 t/ha,
soybeans – 2.82 t/ha,
beans – 2.83 t/ha,
peas – 2.33 t/ha.

According to the service, this spring there was a severe deficit of precipitation in northwestern Europe, and in the Benelux countries, northern France, Germany, Sweden, western and southern Poland the spring drought was the most severe in the entire history of observations, which caused concern about the yield of winter and spring crops.

Meanwhile, in Italy, Greece and the Iberian Peninsula, abundant rainfall has improved yields, which are forecast to be 15-20% above the 5-year average.

Dry weather is expected to result in below-average yields in eastern Ukraine, Turkey, western Maghreb and Cyprus. Precipitation in most regions was less than half normal. Winter and spring crops are currently in good condition, but signs of drought are already emerging, especially as the flowering phase approaches.

The western regions of Belgium have been hit the hardest, where the effects of the drought are already visible. In Germany, the negative impact of the drought on the harvest is not very noticeable, but, according to the MARS forecast, it will become more pronounced in the coming weeks.

There are also concerns about the impact of drought on crops in Central (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia) and Southeastern (Romania) Europe, although the rainfall deficit there is smaller than in Northwestern Europe.

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