Canada: Canadian crop 2024-25 estimated at 8.144 mln tonnes

For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is estimated at 8.144 million tonnes (Mt) by Statistics Canada (STC) in its December survey-based yield and production estimate report. The December estimate is more than half a million tonnes or 7% higher from the September model-based result, due to lower abandonment rates and higher yield estimates.

Nevertheless, a significant year-on-year (y/y) decline in barley production was observed in the Canadian Prairie provinces, primarily due to a reduction of area planted in the region and that Alberta, the largest barley growing province in Canada, experienced the lowest yield since 2012 (excluding 2021 when an unprecedented drought on the Canadian Prairies severely impacted crop development).

As a result, 2024 Canadian barley production is down 9% from last year, and down 13% from the five-year average.

Alberta remains the largest barley-growing province, accounting for 52% of total barley production in Canada, with 37% in Saskatchewan, 6% in Manitoba and the remainder in other provinces.

Due to the annual decline in production that is only partly offset by a significant increase in carry-in stocks, total supply for 2024-25, at 9.4 Mt, is down 3% y/y and 9% below average.

Total domestic use is projected to rise from last year, despite smaller supplies.

Exports are projected to fall, limited by smaller supplies.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.8 Mt, down 31% y/y to reflect smaller supplies.

The 2024-25 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$290/tonne (t), the lowest in five years, due to pressure from price weakness in other crops.

Internationally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) put the 2024-25 world barley supply estimate at 190 Mt in its December supply and demand update. This is down 3% y/y and 7% below the five-year average, also the lowest in six years.

World feed use is projected to rise y/y, with food and industrial use to fall marginally.

World ending stocks are projected at 18 Mt, down sharply from last year, and the five-year average to an all-time low.

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