Canada: 2024-25 barley production projected at 7.6 mln tonnes, down 15% yoy

For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is projected by Statistics Canada (STC) at 7.6 million tonnes (Mt), down 15% year-over-year (y/y), primarily due to a slightly lower yield combined with significantly smaller seeded area. The national average yield is projected by STC at 3.28 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), which is slightly lower than last year and 4% below the five-year average. If realized, 2024 production will be the lowest in a decade (excluding 2021, when an unprecedented drought in Western Canada significantly reduced Canadian barley production to 7.0 Mt) and well below the five-year average.

The final crop reports released by the Prairie provincial governments have provided final crop yield and quality estimates. Alberta has lowered its barley provincial average yield estimate from its previous estimate to 3.08 t/ha; it is down 5%, 9% and 14%, respectively, from STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Alberta also reported that the bulk of the barley harvest is in the top two grades, although it is below the five-year average. Saskatchewan has raised its barley yield estimate from its previous estimate to 3.41 t/ha; it is up 4%, 10%, and 8% from STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Saskatchewan also reported that most of the barley crop in the province graded in the top two categories, indicating good overall crop quality. Manitoba has confirmed barley yields ranging from 4.30 to 6.46 t/ha, well above STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average, and overall quality was also rated as good.

Despite an expected annual decline in production that will be for a large part offset by a significant increase in carry-in stocks, total supply for 2024-25, at 8.9 Mt, will be down 9% y/y and 14% below average.

Total domestic use and exports are predicted to decline to reflect the smaller supply.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at a tight level of 0.7 Mt, down 39% y/y and 14% below the average.

The 2024-25 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$285/tonne (t), the lowest in four years, due to pressure from price weakness for other crops.

Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the world barley supply estimate for 2024-25 from its October estimate to 191 Mt, which is down 3% y/y and 7% below the five-year average, also the lowest in six years. World feed use is projected to rise y/y, with food and industrial use to fall marginally. World ending stocks are projected at 17 Mt, down sharply to an all-time low.

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