Australia: Barley crop estimates up 6.1% in ABARES December report

Australia is forecast to produce 25.5 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat, 11.1Mt of barley and 5.5Mt of canola, according to estimates released by ABARES on December 5 in its December 2023 Australian Crop Report.

Compared with estimates released in the September report for the crop now being harvested, the wheat figure is up 0.27 percent, while barley is up 6.1pc, and canola is up 7.2pc.

ABARES now forecasts Australia’s total winter-crop production at 46.1Mt, slightly below the 10-year average, up from 45.2Mt seen in September, but 33pc below the record 2022-23 crop.

The lift from September reflects improved prospects in southern cropping regions, which are expected to more than offset reduced production in parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

ABARES said seasonal conditions across Australian winter-cropping regions have been mixed throughout the 2023-24 growing season.

After below-average rainfall in September, early October rainfall boosted prospects for cropping regions in southern NSW, Victoria and parts of South Australia, and better-than-expected rainfall and improved soil-moisture levels benefitted crops in these regions.

By contrast, seasonal conditions were largely unfavourable at the start of the season in Queensland and northern NSW, and deteriorated further as the season progressed.

Seasonal conditions in WA worsened over spring and have reduced yield potential, particularly in northern cropping regions.

Hot and dry finishing conditions in Queensland, northern NSW, SA and WA have seen the national winter-crop harvest start earlier than normal, and progress at a much faster pace than in recent years.

Lower yields, improved labour availability, and increased harvester capacity from investment in machinery are also contributing to the faster pace of this year’s harvest.

Much of eastern Australia recorded significant rainfall late last month, and this has delayed harvest across central and southern NSW, Vic and parts of SA.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook out to February issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on November 23, there is no strong tendency towards above or below-median rainfall across most cropping regions.

December rainfall totals are expected to be below 25mm for most southern cropping regions.

This should allow for timely completion of the national winter-crop harvest and minimise the potential grain-quality downgrades typically associated with a wet harvest.

However, if higher-than-expected rainfall totals were to continue this month, it will likely cause further quality downgrades in unharvested crops.

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