EU & UK: Barley production forecast slightly up at 54.65 mln tonnes

As barley harvest wraps up across Europe, the final crop picture is coming into clearer focus. For the EU-27 and the UK, production forecast is slightly up at 54.65 mln tonnes with the increase mainly due to improved winter barley yields in the UK, France, and Germany, RMI Analytics said in their late September report.

The performance of winter barley is critical because of the need to offset lower spring barley results in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Germany.

Early growing season hot and dry weather reduced spring yield potential, and the news got worse as severe rains arrived as harvest approached.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian crops have increased due to better harvest results with around 90% of the Russian crop harvest, and with the Ukraine harvest now fully completed.

Although French barley exports were very strong in July and August with 1.1 mln tonnes exported to China alone (much higher than the 0.2 mln tonnes exported a year ago). However, European exports outside the continent are expected to decline slightly on weaker demand while trade within the EU should increase, necessitated by crop issues.

Prices in Europe for two-row spring barley are down rather sharply in France and both in the UK and Denmark. Trade has gone quiet following the previous run up in prices, while questions persist about malt demand. A slightly improved winter barley harvest result and better malting quality results in Denmark have led to the current fall back in values. Of particular interest is reported trade of French winter barley to Mexico, evidence that there is still open demand in the market.

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