North America: Analysts reduce Canada barley crop, exports forecasts

After prolonged hot and dry conditions, rain has finally arrived in the region, just as harvest is about to roll forward. However, the forecast over the next week is rather positive for western Canada and the northern US, allowing harvest to advance, RMI Analytics said in their late August report.

In the US, harvest is 49% complete, which is slightly behind the five-year average pace of 52%. Crop conditions in both the US (49% good/excellent versus 54% last year) and Canada, with Alberta and Saskatchewan ratings far below normal.

RMI Analytics’ crop estimate for Canada at 7.87 mln tonnes is 0.2 mln tonnes down from the early August forecast, with exports dropping as the smaller crop 2023 leaves a tighter supply.

Barley prices are unchanged and remain at levels above both Australia and Argentina (more in line with France prices). Little farmer selling is noted as maltsters are putting any new demand into 2024.

Domestic feed barley prices have finally dropped significantly. The result is feed barley is now much more competitive versus imported US corn (CAD357/tonne delivered Lethbridge area).

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