EU: Strategie Grains cut its soft wheat, barley outlooks again

Dry weather in Spain and southeast Europe is hampering wheat and barley production, with this year's harvest outlook now looking worse than previously expected.

Strategie Grains, a French agricultural consultancy, said in its monthly report on July 13 that it now expects European soft wheat production to hit 126.2 million metric tons, down 2.5 million tons from last month's assessment. This would still be one million tons higher than the production figure in 2022/23, but is evident of the dryness seen in Spain, where crop production is being particularly hampered, it said.

Likewise, Strategie Grains cut its barley outlook to 47.1 million tons, down from 51.3 million tons last year. "Barley harvesting had started in Spain but as expected, yields are catastrophically low because of the historic drought," it said, adding that excessive humidity in southern Europe has also added to production issues.

Corn production, meanwhile, is forecast at 60.8 million tons, up from 52.1 million tons last year when the crop had been devastated by drought in France and Germany. Strategie Grains warned this figure could also be under pressure, unless there is significant rainfall in July.

Ukrainian and Brazilian corn is likely to compete with European sources, keeping prices low, the French consultancy said. French wheat prices should also fall, narrowing the gap on Russian and Ukrainian wheat offers.