Canada: For 2005-06, barley production is forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to decrease by 8% from 2004-05 to 12.2 million tonnes, due to lower yields and area, AAFC published on February 7. Farmers are expected to reduce area seeded to barley by 4% due to large carry-in stocks and low expected prices, relative to other grains and oil seeds. Average yields are expected to decrease from 3.3 t/ha to about 3.0 t/ha, AAFC said on January 14.
Total supplies, however, are expected to rise slightly from 2004-2005 to 15.4 million tonnes, due to higher carry-in stocks. Domestic use is forecast to increase by 5% due to higher feed demand. Exports are projected to increase significantly, to 2.5 million tonnes, assuming increased supplies of malting quality barley. AAFC said on January 14 that the quality of the 2004-2005 barley crops is much below normal and the selection rate for malting barley is estimated to have dropped sharply, due to sprout and frost damage and high screenings. Exports of malting barley for 2005-2006 are expected to increase to 1.1 million tonnes from an estimated 0.6 million tonnes in 2004-2005. Import demand is expected to improve in the US for six-row designated barley and remain strong in China for two-row varieties. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall to 2.4 million tonnes, from 3.2 million tonnes in 2004-2005.
Carry-out stocks are expected to drop to 3.1 million tonnes. Off-Board feed barley prices are forecast at C$120/t, C$10/t higher than for 2004-05. CWB pool returns for feed barley are forecast by AAFC to increase slightly from 2004-05. CWB pool returns for Special Select Two Row designated barley are forecast by AAFC at C$185/t, vs the Jan. PRO of C$178/t for 2004-05, due mainly to higher world coarse grain prices.
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