World: Weather concerns having significant impact on barley markets

Weather concerns are becoming front and centre, as it is usual for this time of the year, and given the tight global supply environment they are having a significant impact on the market, RMI Analytics said in their May report.

As a result the market remains hyper-sensitive to all potential risks to production which today are focused mostly upon dryness concerns in France. The RMI Analytics crop 2022 world barley production estimate remains at 146.4 mln tonnes. Lack of rain in France over the next 7-10 days will increase the potential need to reduce the EU27+UK barley production. For now, RMI are holding the production forecast for the region unchanged.

Clearly the production drop from 2019 and 2020 crop levels (amidst strong demand) has created a very tight ending stock situation. The extreme drop in ending stocks leaves little room for any drop in yields, and in the case of malting barley any significant quality impact. Beyond the dryness concerns, the delays in planting (e.g. North America) push barley maturation further into the higher heat of summer. Not an ideal start for these crops.

The 2022 crop year is shaping up to be an average year, at best. This leaves us with a situation where the current tight barley supply situation is likely to extend into crop 2023, which is increasingly looking as the more likely opportunity for an increase in barley supply and stocks.