Russia: Russia's barley balance sheet expected to be tight

Russia is a major grain exporter (historically among the top 7), according to Sov Econ, June 8. Its main barley crop is planted in the spring. Sov Econ, an agricultural analyst, recently released its revised balance sheet for 2007/08.

The forecaster has revised its barley output estimates down 0.6Mt to 17Mt from last month, now significantly below last season's 18.15Mt. This downward revision was due to drought in May-early June in Southern regions, which are the principle producing areas. Lower spring barley yields and losses of plantings are expected, although rains in some regions in June have limited the damage somewhat. Also, the spring barley acreage is likely to be smaller compared to 2006.

Imports have been raised by 0.15Mt to 0.35Mt from the previous estimates as they are expected to be supported by a strong demand for malting barley. With beginning stocks adjusted higher at 1.35Mt, Sov Econ now forecast the total barley supply at 18.7Mt, down from 19.0Mt last month and down 19.3Mt in 2006/07.

On the demand side, internal consumption is left unchanged from last month at 17.1Mt; up from the 16.35Mt consumed in 2006/07, the growing pig sector has boosted feed demand which is now seen at 13.8Mt from 13.2Mt last season.

Despite the revised production, exports are increased slightly to 1.2Mt compared to 1.1Mt last month and 1.55Mt for 2006/07. This rise reflects the potential effect of a temporary ban on Ukrainian exports July 1.

Russia's barley balance sheet is therefore expected to be tight with closing stocks set at 0.4Mt.