World: Barley production forecast slips further down this month

World barley production forecast this month slipped to 148 mln tonnes (from 148.2 mln tonnes in the previous report in late November) and represents a drop of 10.8 mln tonnes from crop 2020, RMI Analytics said in their early December report.

Even at high price levels, the volume of global trade is expected to remain high due to strong Chinese and Middle East demand. This reduction of over 10 mln tonnes puts the global balance sheet in a precarious position, especially for malting barley, the analysts said.

The market seems relatively stable in terms of coverage for now, but export programs remain very strong despite lingering logistic constraints. The analysts’ main concern remains the barley stock situation in May-June 2022, when stocks will be extremely thin.

Barley ending stocks are dropping globally with a traditional surplus region (North America) likely in a deficit scenario. Trade flows continue to alter to adjust to the current global situation and the situation remains fluid as we await the Southern Hemisphere outcomes (Australia and South America). Focus is quickly shifting to crop 2022 as the next opportunity to start the rebalancing of supply & demand.