EU: Analysts see barley/malt/beer situation as precarious

The EU barley/malt/beer situation is precarious. Barley supplies may be less than needs, brewers have not covered their malt demand, and maltsters have not sold their full capacities, H. M. Gauger GmbH warned in their October report.

Beer output is expected to return close to normal pre-corona levels, which would require a malt production of at least 90 - 95% of the existing capacities.

At present there are virtually no sellers of malting barley; some brewers resp. their long term agreement-partners try vainly to find barley offers, others are just abstaining from markets. Guesses range from 20 to 50% of the malt demand, which must still be bought.

The cost of malting has increased by a huge margin: barley, freight, CO2-taxes, energy. Maltsters in areas of barley deficits are expected to shut down part of their capacities during this crop year. To overcome the supply crisis, brewers must be ready to accept much lower than normal malt qualities, and malt of 6-row winter barley. And the industry must accept present or even higher price levels. Higher prices may release barley supplies held back by farmers, coops and merchants, and in the end it may open the (price) door for imports from Argentina or Australia. The regular and even the TRQ import tariffs remain, of course, the main obstacle to imports. If nothing works, shutdowns of maltings and independent breweries could be the consequence.