Canada: Barley production expected to increase by 19% in 2019-20

For 2018-19, carry-out stocks of barley in Canada reached a record low of almost 0.9 million tonnes due to lower supply than last year and very high exports, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its October report.

For 2019-20, barley production in Canada is estimated to increase by 19% to almost 10 mln tonnes, as barley output in most barley producing provinces, except Quebec, increased. About 60% of the increase in production comes from Alberta, the leading barley producing province in Canada, and 39% from Saskatchewan.

The supply of barley in Canada is expected to increase significantly from 2018-19 due to sharply increased production which more than offsets historically low carry-in stocks.

Barley domestic use is expected to increase from 2018-19, reflecting higher feed use.

Exports are forecast to fall due to improved supplies in competing countries and lower shipments to China.

Carry-out stocks are anticipated to increase sharply.

The average price of feed barley has continued to decline since mid-June, in anticipation of abundant feed grain supplies. As a result, the feed barley price for 2019-20 is expected to decrease compared to 2018-19.

World barley production for 2019-20 is projected to rise to its highest level since 2008-09, largely due to higher output in the major world exporting countries, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Barley production in the EU, Australia, Russia and Ukraine is expected to increase. World trade is projected to rise due to higher supply and stronger demand. Increased imports from Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco will more-than offset decreased deliveries to other countries. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to the highest level in the recent three years.