North America: Barley crop forecast for Canada raised thanks to further beneficial rains

Further beneficial rains have arrived across much of the key barley areas in Canada and USA. Barley crop 2024 forecast for Canada is raised to 10.1 mln tonnes, due to the very good growing conditions. Reports from Mexico are not good as a record drought is impacting local production and there is a possible need for higher barley exports. This would tighten the supply situation as US barley area is lower, but Canada does look very good at present, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Global barley export pace remains at the lower end of the past five years, but there has been a small uptick in volumes the past 3-4 weeks. As a result, RMI Analytics’ crop 2023 export estimate has increased slightly to 2.0 mln tonnes of barley. With improved crop conditions and some challenges in other origins, crop 2024 barley exports from Canada should increase further to 2.4 mln tonnes but still lag the crop 2021 level of 3.2 mln tonnes when the Chinese/Aussie tariff was still in place.

Barley prices are flat, stuck between stronger world wheat prices and a good crop prospect. Canada represents ~10% of China’s barley imports (China imported 1.6 mln tonnes in April alone), and with a good crop developing, this origin could increase share as feed/FAQ prices are now very competitive globally. Prices are mostly flat for domestic feed barley; farmers are more willing to sell but demand is low. The new crop price is slightly cheaper than old crop, an indication of a good crop pressuring prices.

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