Japan: Domestic shipments of beer rose 0.3% in 1H 2006, the first increase in a decade

Japanese beer shipments are on the rise for the first time in a decade, as the world's second-largest economy toasts a brisk recovery from years of doldrums. But the future of Japan's US$24.8 billion beer industry is uncertain, Mainichi Daily News released August 14.

Changing tastes, healthier lifestyles and Japan's shrinking population are all looming buzz kills for an industry that has already undergone painful restructuring during a recently ended decade of economic stagnation.

Struggling to keep the profits coming, Japan's big brewers - Kirin, Asahi, Sapporo and Suntory - are trying everything from diversifying into baby food to expanding into China and introducing soybean beer.

"Until now, the beer market has been shrinking because people wanted cheaper drinks," said Shuji Takimoto, spokesman for the Brewers Association of Japan. "But just judging by the changing population, the future of beer also looks tough."

The good news is that in the first half of 2006, domestic shipments of beer rose 0.3 percent, the first increase in a decade, as rising wages and consumer optimism encouraged people to dine out. Shipments of all beer products, including low-malt beer and no-malt beer, climbed 1.1 percent to 230.66 million cases, its first increase in five years.

The Japanese weren't even brewing their own beer until 1872. But by 2004, Japan was the world's sixth-biggest consumer, guzzling 655,000 hl a (1.7 billion gallons) year. On a per-capita basis, the country is Asia's No. 1, with each Japanese quaffing an annual average of 51.3 liters (13.5 gallons) - or one 350 milliliter (12 ounce) can every 2 1/2 days.

But that grand drinking tradition is under attack from several corners.

Wine and spirits are slowing converting taste buds, while health concerns are turning more people off to alcohol in general.

Meanwhile, Japan's declining population and rising ranks of elderly - at 21 percent, the world's highest proportion aged 65 or over - mean a future with fewer beer drinkers, no matter how devout.

To bolster sales during the economic slump when drinkers watched their wallets, Japanese beermakers introduced new products to dodge the so-called "taste tax" that accounts for nearly half the price of a can of regular Japanese beer.

The tax applies only to beers containing more than 67 percent malt. So the Japanese rivals raced to roll out low-malt drinks, which substitute rice or corn syrup for malt, and even no-malt varieties made of soybeans.

At half the price of full-malt beers, they quickly won over penny-pinching drinkers. The only problem is profit margins on these variants are razor slim, and purists shun them.

"The difference in taste is obvious," says Yukiko Oshima, a beer analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston in Tokyo.

Kirin, which just wrested Japan's top-selling beer title from archrival Asahi, has branched into pharmaceuticals and seedlings for cut flowers to diversify revenue. Asahi, which gets 90 percent of its sales from alcohol, announced similar plans in April to buy baby formula maker Wakodo Co.

Beckoning from over the horizon is a potentially bigger savior in China, the world's top beer consumer and its fastest-growing market, expanding at around 10 percent in 2004. Japanese brewers are ramping up production there as fast as possible.

Leading the way was Suntory, which began brewing beer in China in 1984. In June, it bought Chinese operations from Australia's Foster's Group Ltd. and now controls about 60 percent of the booming Shanghai beer market.

Asahi is setting up its fifth beer plant in China run via joint ventures. And Kirin plans to build a new brewery in southern China's Guangdong province and buy out its local partner to make Zhuhai Kirin Brewery a wholly owned subsidiary - a total investment of about 10 billion yen (US$87 million; €67.7 million).

Profits are hard won because of historically low prices, however, and Japanese brands still trail other foreign competitors, including Anheuser-Busch and SABMiller PLC. Belgium's InBev and Holland's Heineken are also in the mix.

And unlike their U.S. and European-based rivals, Japanese beers face a unique barrier in a country that still harbors bitter memories of Japanese militarism during World War II. Especially if your name's Asahi - or "rising sun" in Japanese.

Last year, Asahi beer was temporarily yanked from shelves in a Chinese boycott triggered by lingering anti-Japanese outrage.

"Japanese brewers going to China shouldn't be looking for quick gains," said Oshima, the analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston.

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