09 August, 2006

Canada: Barley supply expected to fall by 13%

Barley production is forecasted to decrease by 15%, due to lower area and yields, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released August 04 in its Grains and Oilseeds Outlook. Supply is expected to fall by 13%. Exports are forecast to decrease by 8%, as lower feed barley exports are only partially offset by higher exports of malting barley.

Despite lower exports and domestic feed use, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly. The average off-Board feed barley price (No.1 CW, in-store Lethbridge) is forecast to increase by $20/t from 2005-06 (figures in CA$). The CWB PRO for No. 1 CW feed barley for Pool A in 2006-07 is $124/t, vs. $125/t for Pool A in 2005-06. The CWB PRO for SS2R malting barley is $174/t vs. $171/t for 2005-06, due to lower expected exportable supply in Australia and strong import demand from the US.

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