USA: Barley supply is expected to be down from last year

USA barley production will decrease 7 Million bushels (about 152.4 thousand metric t) in 2006/07, according to the USDA Economic Research Service “Feed Outlook” released May 16.

The 2006/07 barley crop is projected at 205 million bushels (about 5,433 thousand metric t) compared with 212 million (about 4,615.7 thousand metric t) the previous year. This decrease comes from a 69,000-acre decrease in harvested area, which is projected at 3.2 million acres in 2006/07. A 0.7-bushel per-acre yield decrease, now projected at 64.1 bushels per acre, also contributes to the decline.

Forecasted barley planted area is based on the March Prospective Plantings report, and harvested area comes from the 2000-2005 average relationship between harvested and planted area (excluding 2002). Barley yield comes from 1960-2005 trend yields, adjusted for rounding.

Barley beginning stocks are 105 million bushels, down from 128 million bushels in 2005/06. Imports for 2006/07 are forecast at 15 million bushels, up 10 million from a year earlier. Total supply is 325 million bushels, down from 345 million bushels.

On the use side, feed and residual use, and exports are projected to decrease in 2006/07. Food, seed, and industrial use is unchanged at 155 million bushels, as domestic beer demand is thought to be steady. Feed and residual use for 2006/07 is projected at 45 million bushels, down from 55 million a year earlier. Exports are projected at 25 million bushels, down from 30 million in 2005/06. Total 2006/07 barley utilization is projected at 225 million bushels, down from 240 million a year earlier.

Ending barley stocks for 2006/07 are projected at 100 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from the previous year. Barley prices are projected at $2.45-$2.85 for 2006/07 compared with $2.51 in the previous year.