14 April, 2006

EU: Reliable forecasts of acreages are more difficult than in other years

Spring has arrived to the EU in late March. Spain and Portugal recorded good rainfalls, improving their crop prospects after the catastrophic harvest of 2005. However, further regular precipitation will be needed between now and harvest time to overcome to subsoil moisture deficit, the consequence of a number of past dry years.

Reliable forecasts of acreages are more difficult than in other years, because of the lateness of spring and still unknown winter damages, which, however, are expected to be small.

Coceral like other private estimates expect a larger crop in Spain and no major changes in the other countries. There is some apprehension, nevertheless, about the acreages and resulting crops of spring barley in Germany and all Eastern and Southeastern EU countries.

Neither USDA nor IGC office gives a crop forecast for 2006. Europe and the CIS are growing two thirds of the world barley production. The long and cold winter in large parts of Europe make a good estimate difficult, if not impossible.

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