Denmark: Report from Danish analysts on Scandinavian malting barley market
The warm harvesting weather continued all through September and October with few exceptions and today Denmark is 5.2 deg C, above normal November temperatures in the north, the analysts from Danish H. Abildstroem & Co. ApS communicated to E-malt on November 9.
Danes were lacking rain but have recently restored water reserves almost every- where in Sweden and Denmark. Denmark experienced record sun-hours in October, highest figure since 1920 when recording commenced. Finland could use a bit more rain, but if things are turning normal they will get some December snow.
The Danes were the first to issue a prognosis on sown areas for winter crops, showing below. Less wheat and more rapeseed makes total area not much different to last year`s. There was a tendency to believe that the winter sown areas would be a lot bigger than last year leaving less space for the spring crops. At this moment this anticipation seems wrong. On the other hand the last year`s prognosis was more than 30.000 ha away (lower) from reality.
1000 ha. Sown for following harvesting year.
Crop 2004 2005
Total 957 950
W. wheat 662 629
W.barley 139 143
Rye 27 18
Triticale 31 30
Vinter rapeseed 98 130
The Swedish prognosis for winter sown areas is awaited around the 17th November, Finnish figures expected end of this month.
MARKET.
Generally quiet market. Danes are again the most expensive sellers compared to France and U.K. Only partly due to problems with Canadian barley sold to Columbia failed in quality and partly a sincere wish to sell a volume of Prestige barley Danish barley could come into question for the said destination. Also due to the extreme quality-conscious South Africans Danish was chosen as supply in October. If the dollar would be friendly to EU it could happen again, as we have barley enough for everyone and the quality – as reported earlier – is top class. Otherwise turnover presently consisting of trading houses covering their shorts nice and quietly as the delivery period/s are approaching. Two good reasons for waiting till “the last moment” are prices have been sliding slowly but almost continuously and freight is a lot cheaper and handier in the spot market than on deferred periods.
The Finns realized that they harvested more malting barley than they can use and are now selling some of their Scarlett and Annabell eastwards. The Saana is more difficult but might after thorough testing also find homes outside Finland. Total surplus, however, hardly exceeding 30-40.000 ts.
Swedish barley to a great extent staying in Sweden for the domestic malsters. Logistical factors will strongly support shortest transportation possible. Consequently shipping/driving Danish barley does not have the previous appeal because of the final CIF or delivered price. Temptations, however, exists in the recent development in value of the € in Sweden (9.55-9.61). Swedish kroner is very weak and a specific malting barley price in € obviously more attractive to sellers in Sweden than in Denmark.
PRICES
Basis 3000 ts, max 14.5% moisture, max 11.5% Protein , FOB. Sellers ideas.
Crop 2005.
Danish.
Barke fh November € 130,00
Prestige - € 127,50
Sebastian/Class/Powe - € 124,00
Troon - € 121,00
Swedish
Barke - € 128,50
Pasadena - € 124,50
Astoria/Anabell - € 121,00
Crop 2006
Not really developed.
Buyers ideas BARKE fh October € 130,00
GENERAL INFORMATION.
Carlsberg results 3 quarters 2005 came to public. Turnover up from 27.278 mil DKK to 28.533. Russia still the “locomotive”. Prices in Scandinavia stopped sliding. Volume beer sales in W. Europe dropped only around 1% against total trend minus 3-4%, however, in order forestall further decrease the plans to close several breweries are still valid.
Wstecz
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