11 October, 2005

Canada: AAFC estimates increased Canadian barley supply and exports

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released a report on October 7 according to which the barley production is estimated to fall by 8% from 2004-05, as a result of lower area and yields. Total supply, however, is projected to increase slightly due to high carry-in stocks which resulted from the large production of low-quality barley in 2004-05. The quality of the 2005-06 crop is estimated to be below normal. Exports are forecast to rise by 34% due to higher feed barley exports. Carry-out stocks are expected to drop significantly, returning to a near-normal level. The off-Board feed barley price is forecast to decline slightly. Malting barley prices will be pressured by higher world production, with the CWB PRO for Special Select 2-Row down by C$8/t from 2004-05 at C$171/t.

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