07 October, 2005

EU: Barley export forecasts for the EU range from 3.3 to 4.2 million tonnes

Recent barley export forecasts for the EU range from 3.3 to 4.2 million tonnes, market analysts stated. For the first trimester of the crop year the EU Commission granted export certificates and sold intervention stocks totalling 1.04 million tonnes.

Only once in early September the Commission acted fairly aggressively, granting an export restitution of EUR 4.89 and selling 120,000 tonnes from intervention at prices below US $ 130,- FOB. Since that date, however, cheap offers from Brussels have dried up, no more positive restitutions were granted. We can only guess the Commission's attitude, it must be the combination of a very tight EU supply and demand balance and a similarly tight world balance. EU barley is needed in world markets to satisfy the existing demand, irrespective of prices and the still unknown final outcome of the Canadian and Australian harvests.

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