Canada: Analysts’ forecasts on barley production and exports

The barley production of Canada is forecasted to stay in 2005/2006 unchanged from the 2004/2005 level of 13.2 MMT, despite a general drop in seeded acreage.

The forecasted higher-than-average crops of Saskatchewan and Alberta will more than offset the small decline in seeded acreage, thereby holding barley production at the same level as the 2004/2005 crop year.

Moreover, whole supply is expected to increase from 15.4 MMT in 2004/2005 to 16.3 MMT in 2005/2006 as a result of high carry-in stocks of low quality barley from the 2004/2005 crop year and the steady production level.

The exports of barley are forecast to increase to 2.6 MMT in 2005/2006 from 1.3 MMT in 2004/2005 as result of an increase of higher quality malting barley and limited export competition for feed barley. Imports of barley in 2005/2006 are expected to decline as a result of high carry-in stocks, steady production and an increase in higher quality barley.

Domestic use of barley will continue to remain high the high carry-in stocks of low quality barley and steady production provide ample feed supplies for livestock producers. Barley ending stocks are forecast to decline from 3.1 MMT in 2004/2005 to 2.7 MMT in 2005/2006 as increased exports and high domestic usage help to reduce the large barley supply.

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