03 July, 2005

World: Barley outlook for crop 2005-2006

A further deterioration in crop prospects in the EU, especially in Spain, and a reduced estimate for Australia, despite June rains, contributed to a cut of 3.1 million tonnes in the world barley production forecast for 2005-2006 made by the International Grains Council (IGC) on June 28, now placed at 137.3 million tonnes (151.6 million tones the previous year).

After large 2004 harvests, output in the EU, the CIS and North Africa is expected to show a marked decline. The downturn in EU production is also likely to affect consumption, especially if prices rise. However, this will not prevent EU stocks from dropping to their lowest since 1983/84 (EU-15 basis).

Trade estimates for both 2004/05 and 2005/06 have been raised to reflect larger than anticipated imports by Saudi Arabia. Despite somewhat higher forecast feed imports by North Africa, and strong Russian and China demand for malting, world shipments of barley are expected to be 16.4m tons, just short of last year’s level.

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