30 April, 2005

World: A smaller, but above-average, global barley crop for 2005/06 is forecast

The International Grain Council (IGC) forecast a smaller, but above-average, global barley crop for 2005/06, reflecting a reduction in sowings and assuming slightly lower yields. Production is projected at 145 million tonnes, down from last year’s 152 million tonnes, with the EU expected to see the biggest fall.

Global consumption of barley is expected to remain strong, with a slight fall in feed use, notably in Saudi Arabia, matched by rises in industrial use. Heavy demand for beer in China will likely lift use in the brewing sector.

With world barley demand broadly equalling production, little change is expected in the level of carry-out stocks in 2005/06. A somewhat higher level of trade is forecast, resulting from projected increases in both feed and malting barley. At 16.0 million tonnes, the figure is 0.5 million tonnes above that estimated for 2004/05, assuming slightly higher imports of feed barley in North Africa and larger malting needs in China.

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