27 April, 2005

Canada: Barley production is to decline in 2005-2006, Malting barley prices to be pressured

Canada barley production in 2005-2006 is forecasted by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to decrease by about 0.5 million tonnes to 12.66 million metric tonnes versus 13.19 million tonnes of barley production in 2004-2005. Hower supply is expected to rise to 15.89 million metric tonnes due to higher carry-in stocks, which resulted fom the large production of low-quality barley in 2004-05.

Barley exports are expected to increase by nearly 20% to 2.5 millin metric tonnes as the supply of malting quality barley increases. Carry-out stocks are expected to remain high historically at 3.1 million metric tonnes and the off-Board feed barley price is forecast to be similar to 2004-05: C$100-120.

Malting barley prices will be pressured by higher world production, with the CWB PRO for Special Select 2-row malting barley down by C$7/t from 2004-05 at C$173/t.

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