Australia: Barley crop approaching 15 mln tonnes remains realistic, analysts say

Australia’s barley crop conditions remain favourable, with the only concern discussed during our trip last week was the arrival of hotter temperatures, while the forecast has minimal rainfall over the next 14 days. With harvest proceeding in northern New South Wales and parts of Western Australia, the dryness impacts to final yields and quality are potentially more significant for South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

First-hand accounts for crops in New South Wales and Western Australia suggest a crop approaching 15 mln tonnes is realistic, with a reasonable expectation of normal malting barley quality. Based upon first-hand accounts and reports from industry experts across Australia, RMI’s barley crop forecast for Australia has increased +0.3 mln to 14.8 mln tonnes. At nearly 7 mln tonnes, Western Australia is poised to maintain a major share of supply Chinese (and other) export demand.

While domestic feed prices in Queensland are succumbing to early harvest pressure, dryness concerns are supporting underlying export values. Lately, Chinese barley exports are trending downward with coverage reportedly extending through the end of 2025, meaning shipments likely remain at reduced levels until new crop. Feed barley represents 75.2% of total Chinese export volumes.