Europe: The situation with barley analysed by UkrAgroConsult on April 18: The EU is supposed to curtail production, which will be accompanied with a significant stock of this commodity. The outlook for barley production in Russia is rather vague owing to the delayed sowing, although there are notions about increased barley harvest in this country.
However, it must be taken into account that Ukraine had almost no competition from Russia on the barley market in 2004/05’ season, which caused the record high barley exports from Ukraine. This scenario is unlikely in the season 2005/06. There will be significant competition to Ukrainian grain on the part of the Black Sea region's other countries (for example, Bulgaria), notwithstanding the predicted harvest reduction.
Summing up the above, we suppose that the following factors will depress prices:
- good harvest for the second consecutive year (we make a supposition that weather cataclysms will not occur), which will lead to augmented grain supply;
- competition from the EU from the start of the season rather than from November-December, as usual;
- good harvest outlooks for potential buyers and restrictive quotas for exports to the EU (competition with Russia may become more serious due to good harvest prospects in this country).
Înapoi
(libra 0.7344 sec.)