09 May, 2025

Ukraine: Barley exports could increase in 2025/26 despite expected drop in production

Ukraine can increase barley exports in the marketing year 2025/26, even despite expected drop in production. Forecasts indicate a decrease in the harvest – from 5.1 million tonnes (FAS USDA) to more optimistic 5.5 million tonnes (Ukrainian Grain Association) – due to reduced sowing areas and expectations of lower yields, as reported by agronews.ua.

The expected decrease in supply in the new season is exacerbated by the reduction of carryover stocks. USDA forecasts ending stocks for 2024/25 MY at 591 thousand tonnes, which is lower compared to 689 thousand tonnes a year earlier. FAS USDA is even more pessimistic, estimating stocks at only 279 thousand tonnes.

However, a sharp decrease in domestic consumption – expected to drop to 1.9 million tonnes from 3.4 million tons – may open the door to increasing export potential. FAS USDA forecasts barley exports at 3.2 million tonnes, which is 1 million tonnes more y/y, positioning Ukraine as a more active player in the global barley market.

Global demand may weaken in the 2025/26 MY, and China – the world’s largest barley importer – remains a key wildcard. Currently, purchases from China appear stable, but any changes in grain import restrictions policy could significantly impact demand.

At the same time, a rapid decrease in barley stocks in China – expected to drop from 1.7 million tonnes to just 0.5 million tonnes by the end of 2024/25 MY – could support imports. Additionally, recently imposed tariffs on corn from the US, which are expected to effectively halt its supply to China, could stimulate demand for alternative feed grains. However, the effect may be limited as China has been moving away from American corn for some time, increasingly relying on imports from Brazil.

In North Africa, the prospects are mixed. Favorable weather in Algeria and Tunisia may reduce their need for imports. Meanwhile, Morocco is forecasted to experience a sharp decrease in yields and stock levels, which could increase its dependence on imports.

Due to uneven demand and production growth in several key exporting countries, global barley trade is expected to become even more competitive in the new season.

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