Argentina: Analysts leave barley crop 2024 forecast unchanged, 2025 slightly lowered

Crop’24 forecast for barley in Argentina is unchanged at 5.0 mln tonnes, with sufficient quality for malting barley purposes but with a range of protein and kernel sizing. Early shipment executions are validating this quality variability, adding further complexity to logistics planning, RMI Analytics said in their early March report.

For crop’25, RMI’s estimate is slightly lower, -0.1 mln tonnes to 4.8 mln. The lower crop’25 is based upon a yield reduction, and a lower seeded area. The competition from wheat, and lower malting barley demand is a risk to planted area.

Barley export volumes are forecast to decline with crop’25, driven by reduced demand from China as Australia holds 75% market share, and weak beer volumes reducing malting barley needs in South America and globally. The long-term average for Argentina barley exports is 2.9 mln tonnes, which acts as a reminder that the last 3-4 years have been above average. Maltsters appear to be very well covered at present, which is good given limited farmer selling. With sunflower harvest approaching, it is expected farmer liquidity will remain on the low side.