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Canada: 2023-24 barley supply was 8% down year-over-year
For 2023-24, total Canadian barley supply was 9.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 8% year-over-year (y/y) and 5% below the previous five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their October report.
Exports are 3.1 Mt (2.3 Mt for grain exports and 0.8 for product exports), down significantly y/y and well below average. Top export markets include China, the US, Japan, and Mexico.
Total domestic use is 5.5 Mt (5.2 Mt for feed use and 0.3 Mt for other uses), down noticeably from the previous year and the average.
Carry-out stocks stand at 1.2 Mt, up 63% y/y and 52% above average, also the highest in six years.
The Lethbridge feed barley average price for 2023-24 was C$314/tonne (/t), down over C$100/t y/y and the lowest in three years.
For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is projected by STC at 7.6 Mt, down 15% y/y, primarily due to a slightly lower yield combined with significantly smaller seeded area. The national average yield is projected by STC at 3.28 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), which is slightly lower than last year and 4% below the five-year average. If realized, 2024 production will be the lowest in a decade (excluding 2021, when an unprecedented drought in Western Canada significantly reduced Canadian barley production to 7.0 Mt) and well below the five-year average.
By early October, harvest of cereal crops was nearly complete on the Canadian Prairies. In terms of yield, Alberta, the largest barley-producing province in Canada and accounting for more than half of Canadian barley production, reported a provincial average yield of 3.11 t/ha as of October 8, compared to STC’s projection of 3.25 t/ha, 3.38 t/ha last year, and a previous five-year average of 3.58 t/ha. Alberta also reported 26% (five-year average is 32%) of barley in the province to be malt grade, 45% (56%) 1 C.W. Saskatchewan, the second-largest barleyproducing province in Canada, which accounts for almost 40% of Canadian barley production, reported a provincial average of 3.34 t/ha as of November 30, compared to STC’s projection of 3.28 t/ha, 3.09 t/ha last year, and a five-year average of 3.17 t/ha. Manitoba reported barley yield ranging from 4.30 to 6.46 t/ha on October 8, compared to STC’s projection of 3.77 t/ha, 4.06 t/ha last year, and a five-year average of 3.89 t/ha.
Despite an expected decline in production that will be more than offset by a significant increase in carry-in stocks, total supply for 2024-25 will be 8.9 Mt, down 9% y/y and 13% below average.
Total domestic use and exports are predicted to decline to reflect the smaller supply.
Carry-out stocks are forecast at a relatively tight level of 0.7 Mt, down 39% y/y and 15% below the average.
The 2024-25 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$285/t, the lowest in four years, due to pressure from price weakness for other crops.
Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) put world barley supply for 2024-25 at 193 Mt, down 1% y/y and 5% below the five-year average, also the lowest in six years. Australia will see a y/y decrease in barley supply, and the EU will experience an increase. World feed use is projected to rise y/y, with food and industrial use to fall. World ending stocks are projected at 18 Mt, down sharply y/y and well below average, also a record low.
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