World: Barley crop estimate down 0.9 mln tonnes in RMI Analytics’ latest report

RMI Analytics’ global barley production estimate took another small step lower, -0.9 mln tonnes to 141.5 mln tonnes in their latest report published earlier in October.

The reduction comes from Canada (-0.2 mln tonnes) due to a late heat wave during crop maturation and rain at harvest; Australia (-0.6 mln tonnes) due to on-going dry conditions in the south and south-east, plus a recent frost event which undoubtedly had a negative yield impact; and Russia (-0.1 mln tonnes), where harvest results confirmed slightly lower yields due to hot and dry conditions in southern regions.

The result is a total global barley crop 1.1 mln tonnes below crop’23 and 11.4 mln tonnes below crop’22. All of the decrease comes from the Six Major Barley Producers, which is down 1.6 mln tonnes and is offset partially by higher production in smaller producing regions like Kazakhstan and northern Africa.

Global trade is forecast to be sharply lower this crop year, but still ending stocks decline further, down to the lowest level in over ten years.
Normally, a shrinking supply would be worrisome, but with no demand the price impact has been rather limited. Farmers are not pleased with the existing margins from barley (and other crops), which is a concern looking ahead to crop’25.