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Australia: Barley prices are mostly stable with crop forecast increased to 12.2 mln tonnes
Conditions remain very favourable for most of Australia, with further rains in Victoria, Western Australia, and a part of New South Wales. South Australia remains the one area to watch closely as significant moisture has been missed (again). However, Victoria and South Australia are forecast to receive light rain over the next 7 days, RMI Analytics said in their early September report.
The ABARES barley production estimate has been increased to 12.2 mln tonnes (+0.7 mln tonnes from their June report), while the RMI estimate remains steady at 12.6 mln tonnes. Exports decline 0.9 mln tonnes from crop’23 levels as ending stocks start to fall to very low levels, due to strong exports to China plus other destinations. For example, in calendar 2023, barley exports to Mexico totalled nearly 400 thousand tonnes, and while the 2024 pace is well behind 2023, this remains a significant quantity of barley trade exclusion of China.
Australian barley prices are mostly stable, up slightly as domestic prices have firmed and globally wheat markets are supporting grain prices in general. There is a small premium in place for old crop as the crop year heads toward a conclusion. Without rain in South Australia, and as hot temperatures prevail, the level of concern will increase at least in this region. The market has been relatively quiet, except for a recent tender for 1-2 cargos for each of Mexico and South Africa, which was captured once again by the Australia market, which remains the lowest priced malting barley origin globally.
The Australian export line-up remains very busy, with 300 thousand tonnes of barley vessels lined up for loading. The Australian market is no doubt watching closely China’s announcement of an anti-dumping probe for Canadian canola, and to see if this Canada/China dispute possibly extends beyond (e.g barley).
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