World: Barley crop forecast reduced on weather concerns

As a wide range of weather impacts global barley production, RMI Analytics’ latest forecast for the global barley crop 2024 has dropped by 1.3 mln tonnes to 146.5 mln tonnes.

The EU27+UK is down 0.9 mln tonnes, due to wet conditions in northern regions and dryness in southern Spain.

Russia’s crop is reduced a further 0.3 mln tonnes, due to drought and frost impacts.

Harvest is advancing in southern regions of Europe (France, Black Sea) and will provide a first look at yield and quality results. However, there is more rain in the forecast across much of Europe which is not ideal, the analysts said.

A crop 2024 rebound in total barley production is still expected (+3.9 mln tonnes over crop 2023) but the bounce back is being reduced by adverse weather conditions. Selection rates are also an open question, as the weather remains less than perfect in a few key barley production regions.

Barley prices volatility remains elevated and at present the main driver is the global wheat market, where prices are in a dramatic downward trajectory. While there are production concerns in certain key barley regions, these fundamentals are being overwhelmed by the wider grain market and the result is barley prices are lower.

French prices have retreated back to the level before the Russian-led wheat rally occurred. Barley prices in other key malting barley regions (Canada, Argentina, Australia) are also declining but not to the same extent as in France. All prices have converged, as competition for reduced demand is intense.

Black Sea harvest is starting to roll out and should weigh further on feed barley prices in the shorter-term, as this seasonal peak in barley supply materializes, the analysts said.

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