Canada: 2023-24 barley supply estimated 8% down vs 2022-23

For 2023-24, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 8% year-over-year and 6% below the previous five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their June report.

Total domestic demand is forecast at 6.1 Mt, up by 2% year-over-year and in line with the average, supported by industrial use.

Total exports are predicted at 2.95 Mt (2.2 for grain exports and 0.75 for product exports), down noticeably from last year and the average. The largest destination for raw barley grain is China (accounting for 85% of the exports), followed by the US (10%), and Japan (5%). The major destinations for Canadian barley malt have been the US (57%), Japan (22%), Mexico (14%), and South Korea (4%).

Carry-out socks are projected at 0.65 Mt, down from 2022-23’s 0.7 Mt and the average of 0.8 Mt; if realized, this will the lowest stocks ever.

The feed barley cash price in the Lethbridge, Alberta, feedlot region remained relatively stable in April and May, averaging approximately C$295/tonne (/t). The crop year-to-date average was slightly below C$320/t, about C$100/t lower than that last year. For the entire crop year, the average price is forecast at C$315/t, lower than the C$417/t for 2022-23 and the lowest in three years.

Worldwide, global barley supply for 2023-24 is the lowest in five years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is due to a notable reduction in combined supply in major barley exporting countries. Global demand for animal feed is also expected to fall to a five-year low following smaller supplies, but demand for food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) will rebound year-over-year and be slightly above the five-year average, also a record high. World ending stocks are projected to be near record lows.

For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is projected at 9.5 Mt, up 7% year-over-year, supported by an assumed return to normal yields despite smaller seeded area.

Supply is projected at 10.2 Mt, up 5% year-over-year and 2% above average, due to expected increases in production and carry-in stocks more than offsetting lower imports.

Total domestic use is forecast to rise due to increased supply, which supports domestic feed use.

Exports are projected to increase due to an expected increase in domestic supply, despite strong
competition from major barley exporting countries.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.95 Mt, up sharply from the previous year and the average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast at C$295/t, down C$20/t year-over-year and the lowest level in four years.

Worldwide, the USDA predicts a recovery in global barley production for 2024-25. Pegged at 148 Mt, the 2024-25 global barley production is forecast to rise by more than 5.5 Mt from 2023-24.

In spite of historically tight beginning stocks, total supply is projected at 196 Mt, up more than 3 Mt year-over-year, on the recovery in production, with higher supply forecasts for the EU and Canada, and lower supply forecasts for Argentina, Australia, the Black Sea region, and the US.

Supported by larger supplies, total demand in 2024-25 is projected to increase, with expectations for stronger feed consumption and a relatively stable FSI.

Ending stocks will continue to shrink to a historical low.

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