Australia: Barley crop 2024 estimate remains unchanged

Much needed rain has arrived across most of the driest areas of concern in Australia, and this moisture is providing immediate relief to developing problem. However, the rain missed some areas (South Australia for example) and more rain is required to achieve a suitable crop. Further rain is in the forecast for next week and would add to what has already been received. In total, the crop is pushing ahead under OK conditions and RMI Analytics’ barley crop 2024 estimate remains unchanged at 12 mln tonnes.

The improvement in crop conditions has brought with it a greater selling interest from farmers, which was previously absent when dry conditions were a greater concern. From a regional perspective, Western Australia’s crop has improved which is key for exports to China. The east-coast looks good which is key for the major malt exporting capacity in the east. A good shower in South Australia would add further to what is generally a good performance for barley, and where planted area had been gained from canola due to the earlier very dry conditions.

With barley conditions improving in most key regions, prices have moved slightly lower, as farmer selling returns. Domestic feed barley prices in northern New South Wales/Queensland are softer as well, as a better crop outlook weighs on the market.

Barley exports continue on a good pace, with over 600 thousand tonnes in the shipping lineup this week (China). However, limited farmer selling over the past weeks has meant a quiet market, in terms of new business. As farmer selling ramps up, the good export pace is expected to continue.

From a malt perspective, the challenge remains the weaker brewing demand from South-East Asia, although there has been some improvement in Q1'24 but the downturn in 2023 is still hanging over the market.