Canada: 2023-24 barley supply, domestic use forecast to decline

For 2023-24, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 8% year-over-year and 6% below the previous five-year average. Total domestic use is forecast at 5.9 Mt, down slightly year-over-year and 4% below the average, as a result of a decline in feed use. Total exports are predicted at 2.8 Mt, down noticeably from last year and the average, primarily reflecting lower expected exports of barley grain, with China, the US, Japan, and Mexico as the main destinations. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.0 Mt, up sharply from 2022-23’s low of 0.7 Mt and the average of 0.8 Mt, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its last report.

The feed barley cash price in the Lethbridge, Alberta, feedlot region increased by almost $20/tonne (/t) in March after falling to a more than three-year low earlier in the month. At the end of March, the price averaged above $295/t. Consequently, this has brought the crop year-to-date average to above $325/t but remaining below last year. For the entire crop year, feed cash barley price is forecast at $315/t, up 5$ from last month’s projection but down notably 24% from 2022-23.

Worldwide, global barley supply for 2023-24 will be the lowest in five years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Global demand for animal feed is also expected to fall to a five-year low, but demand for food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use will rebound year-over-year and be slightly above the five-year average, a record high. World ending stocks are projected to close to an alltime low. Compared to the March projections, the USDA’s April projections include larger supply and demand and lower ending stocks.

For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is projected at 9.5 Mt, up 7% year-over-year, supported by an assumed return to normal yields despite an expected smaller seeded area. Supply is projected at 10.5 Mt, up 9% year-over-year and 2% above average, due to expected increases in production and carry-in stocks more than offsetting lower imports. Total domestic use is forecast to rise due to increased supply and higher feed use. Exports are projected to remain stable due to strong competition from major barley exporting countries despite larger domestic supplies. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.3 Mt, up 30% year-over-year and 66% above the average. The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast at $295/t, down $20/t year-over-year and the lowest level in four years.

Worldwide, the International Grains Council (IGC) predicts a recovery in global barley production for 2024-25. Pegged at 152 Mt, the IGC’s 2024-25 global barley production forecast is up by 6 Mt from 2023-24, with higher year-over-year forecasts for the EU, Australia, and Canada, and lower forecasts for Russia, Ukraine, and the US. Total supply is projected at 175 Mt, up 4 Mt year-over-year due to expected lower beginning stocks. Total use, global trade, and ending stocks in 2024-25 are also projected to rebound year-over-year.

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